作者：帝文 来源：原创 发布日期：08-23
A | 美国财政部试图通过回购长期国债来缓解市场压力，但华尔街越来越怀疑，这一举措能否真正压低10年期和30年期美债收益率。
B | 高盛集团、富国银行等机构的策略师认为，回购虽然能够减少长期债券的净供给、改善市场流动性，却难以改变推动长端收益率持续走高的基本面因素。 上周美国财政部宣布扩大长期美债回购计划后，10年期和30年期美债收益率一度下行。然而，美债市场很快重新转弱。 上周后半段，即便美国财政部长贝森特表示自己拥有“一整套工具”，同时有报道称财政部可能动用现金储备购买国债，长期收益率仍再次走高。 在华尔街看来，这种市场反应说明，投资者真正担忧的并不是美债短期流动性，而是美国不断扩大的财政赤字、持续存在的通胀压力以及经济增长韧性。 When describing his Middle East trip goals in a Washington Post op-ed, US President Joe Biden said he was embarking on a journey to conduct diplomacy and work in order to normalize relations between Israel and the Arab world, particularly by making sure that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process continues.,However, many critics begged to differ, mainly because of the background behind his first presidential trip to the Middle East. Biden's trip came amid severe economic hardships at home, which a handful of other Western countries are facing as well. With energy prices soaring, one of the main objectives of the US president was to persuade Saudi Arabia to boost oil production in the hopes of curbing prices.,It brought little results, as Riyadh made it clear it could only boost production from 10 to 13 million barrels per day and no more. On top of that, it created an impression among some observers that Biden, in fact, only came to Middle East because he was compelled to sort out US economic grievances, rather than to promote peace and prosperity.,With respect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Biden and the Saudi Arabian leadership reaffirmed their commitment to a two-state solution "along the 1967 lines". However, the US president asserted that the "ground is not ripe" to restart the talks between the two sides, and neither he demanded a settlement freeze from Israeli PM Yair Lapid when the two met in Jerusalem.,As put by Waleed al-Modallal, professor of political science at Gaza’s Islamic University, it's nothing but "repeated slogans" that are not in fact aimed at resolving the long-standing issue.,"I don't think the American side will practice any sort of pressure on the Israeli side, and everybody knows that," Al-Modallal says. "I think this visit is not to refresh the negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis. [...] It comes to solve the economic problem of Americans. That's all.",The professor pointed out that in reality, there is no political will in Israel to go back to the two-state solution negotiations. Moreover, he continued, there is "no chance" for such a solution, as the majority of the land that the Palestinians consider theirs is occupied by Israeli settlers.,The words of Palestinian President Mahmood Abbas about how this might have been one of "the last chances" for a two-state solution, are essentially a mantra that he has been repeating for a long time, Al-Modallal argues.,"It's repeated words from the American president and from the Palestinian president as well," he says, saying that the so-called "regional solution" is being shifted to the responsibility of Arabs, "and Israel would not pay any price regarding the land, regarding the Palestinians' protection or any other things.",Despite the US' declared position on Palestinians and funds that are coming from Washington to support them, the Biden administration still fails to "touch the core of the issue", which is "political, not economic or humanitarian," Al-Modallal explains.,"It's the easiest solution for Americans to give such gifts," he says.,With little hope for Washington to actually do something meaningful regarding the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, it seems that few Palestinians are taking Biden and his visit, particularly his meeting with Abbas, seriously.,"[This] visit comes to support Israelis and the normalization in the region as well as to solve the problem of power, which touches the American and international economy. That's it. It's not to renew or re-enhance Palestinian-Israeli negotiations. We all know that," the professor concludes.。
C | 这些因素正在推动投资者要求更高的长期期限溢价，仅靠财政部买债难以扭转这一趋势。
D | 高盛策略师在报告中指出，财政部增加长期美债回购并没有解决近期长端市场波动的主要来源，即使进一步扩大回购规模，也不太可能从根本上重置利率水平。 高盛认为，近期长端收益率上涨背后存在多重因素，包括美国经济周期韧性增强、市场重新评估美联储政策路径、财政压力、能源风险，以及人工智能资本支出和经济增长乐观预期等。 换言之，财政部回购国债可以改变供需结构，却无法消除这些宏观因素。
富国银行的判断同样谨慎。
E | 该行策略师认为，财政部回购确实意味着长期美债净供给出现“有意义的减少”，同时也释放出政府对债券市场流动性的担忧，但这不足以推动长期收益率持续下降。 富国银行认为，要让长端收益率真正回落，还需要新的宏观催化剂，例如经济增长和通胀明显放缓、美联储资产负债表及利率政策的不确定性下降、财政整顿，或者投资级企业债发行规模放缓。 也就是说，只有基本面发生变化，长期美债才可能迎来较持久的上涨行情。 其他华尔街机构也普遍认为，美债收益率曲线仍面临陡峭化压力。法国兴业银行和德意志银行均预计，长期收益率仍可能继续高于短端，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化，这与贝森特希望通过财政部行动压低长端融资成本的目标相悖。 不过，并非所有机构都对长期美债持悲观态度。花旗认为，财政部回购行动为20年期美债创造了更具吸引力的风险收益比。 随着财政部可能进一步减少20年期国债拍卖规模，加上潜在的养老金资金需求以及未来经济数据走软，20年期美债可能成为政策调整的最大受益者之一。 法国兴业银行则认为，扩大回购规模虽然难以改变推动收益率上行的宏观力量，但有助于改善市场流动性和市场功能。更重要的是，此次行动释放出一个信号：财政部可能愿意采取更加积极、灵活的措施来缓解美债供给过剩问题。
F | 目前，市场正等待美联储主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔会议上的讲话。投资者希望从中寻找9月议息会议的政策线索，但部分机构认为，沃什未必会提供传统意义上的明确前瞻指引。 如果美联储释放偏鹰派信号，保留进一步收紧政策的可能性，反而可能推高短端利率，并进一步加剧收益率曲线的压力。（文章来源：财联社）。
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Published on:09:35:28